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[Econ] Making the Best of a Very Bad Thing
November 2030 Well, uh, this sucks. Just a few short months after the Arab States of the Gulf finally unified, the world economy decided to explode. This is what we in the business of economics call a very bad thing. The effects across the FAS have been relatively disparate. The United Arab Emirates, easily the most diversified economy in the region, has been the least heavily impacted (though it's still bad). Diversification programs in Oman and Bahrain have also helped to stave off some of the worst impacts of the crisis, though they haven't been as successful in avoiding the effects as the UAE. Qatar and Kuwait, still almost entirely reliant on hydrocarbon exports, are not happy with this turn of events. Falling global oil prices, though propped up a little by a sudden increase in demand from China, have left their economies struggling much more than the rest of the country, and in desperate need of assistance from the better off parts of the country. One major pain point in this crisis has been the FAS's economic ties to the United States. While most of the FAS's trade is with Asia, Africa, and Europe, the US financial system still plays a crucial role in the FAS. The stability of the US Dollar has long been used to protect the economies of the Gulf using their vast Forex reserves (earned from oil sales) to peg their currency to the US Dollar. With the US Dollar in complete collapse, the value of the Khaleeji is plummeting right along with it, causing a significant degree of harm to the FAS's economy. To help offset this harm (and to decouple the FAS's economy from a country that the FAS is starting to view as maybe not the most reliable economic partner), the Central Bank in Dubai has announced that the Khaleeji will switch its peg from the US Dollar to a basket of foreign currencies (the Euro, the Pound Sterling, the Swiss Franc, the US Dollar, and the Japanese Yen). The FAS hopes that this will help to salvage the Khaleeji's value, better protecting the economy from the collapse of the dollar-based international financial system. Rumor has it that the Central Bank is discussing the idea of unpegging the Khaleeji entirely and allowing it to float freely, but so far, the Central Bank has made no moves towards floating the Khaleeji. Crises suck. They shatter the status quo and throw established norms and procedures into chaos. No one really wins during a crisis. But in another sense, they're a double-edged sword. The status quo is often a repressive entity, reinforcing existing hierarchies and preventing dramatic shifts in the order of things. Chaos breaks that apart, giving the ingenuitive and the entrepreneurial on opportunity to better their lot in ways they otherwise could not. Put differently: chaos is a ladder, and the FAS intends to be the one climbing it. As the largest economy in the Arab World (and one of the world's 20 largest economies) by both nominal GDP and GDP per capita (by a significant margin--it's probably either Saudi Arabia or Egypt in second place in nominal GDP, and definitely Saudi Arabia in second place in GDP per capita, but the FAS more than doubles the country in second place in both categories, so it's sort of a moot point), the FAS hopes to cement its place as the regional economic power. The FAS has announced a new slate of policies intended to attract rich investors, manufacturing firms, and financiers fleeing the new nationalization program of the United States. New free trade zones have been created throughout the country--especially in the struggling, undiversified regions of Kuwait and Qatar--with the goal of convincing fleeing American manufacturers to set up shop in these areas. Attractions include wildly low tax rates (as low as zero percent in some instances), a common law framework (as opposed to the Sharia-based legal system in most of the FAS), highly subsidized land prices (sometimes free), relaxed financial restrictions (making it easier to move money in and out of the FTZ), and, for large enough firms moving enough operations into the country, preferential visa treatment (making it easier for them to relocate foreign employees into the country). Sitting at one of the major crossroads of global trade, moving operations to the FAS offers easy access to both the world's established consumer markets (like the EU and East Asia) as well as to some of its largest growing markets (South and Southeast Asia, East Africa, and MENA). Pair this with wildly high standards of living (for people who aren't slaves Asian or African migrant workers) and established expatriate communities, and the FAS becomes an incredibly attractive option for American and other foreign firms looking to relocate. In addition to manufacturing-oriented FTZs, special attention has been paid to attracting service-oriented firms to new and existing FTZs in the vein of Dubai Internet City, Dubai Design District, Dubai Knowledge Park, and Dubai Media City, with the goal of developing a robust service economy that can capture growing markets in the MENA, South Asia, and East African regions. In advertising these zones, the governments of the FAS have highlighted the success of previous ventures in Dubai, which have attracted the regional headquarters of giants like Facebook, Intel, LinkedIn, Google, Dell, Samsung, Microsoft, IBM, Tata Consultancy, and more. Perhaps one of the most substantial pushes, though, is to attract American financial services and FinTech firms to base in the FAS (particularly Dubai, Kuwait City, Doha, and Abu Dhabi, the traditional centers of regional finance). New financial industry free trade zones have been set up in the four cities, structured in the vein of the Dubai International Financial Centre (DIFC). These financial FTZs boast an independent and internationally regulated regulatory and judicial system, a common law framework, and extremely low taxation rates. All government services in these regions are available in English (the lingua franca of international finance), and in events where ambiguity exists in the legal and regulatory systems, the systems are set to default to English Common Law (except for the Kuwait City International Financial Centre, which is hoping to better tailor itself towards American financial firms by defaulting to American Civil Law from pre-2020 rather than English Common Law). Much like in the DIFC, these new FTZs will also run their own courts, staffed in large part by top judicial talent from Common Law (or in the case of Kuwait City, American Civil Law) jurisdictions like Singapore, England, and (formerly) Hong Kong. Using these FTZ, the four cities hope to raise their profile as financial centers. Dubai in particular is hoping to break into the top ten global financial centers--and it stands a good chance of doing so, too, as it sits at number 12, just behind cities like LA, SF, and Shenzhen--while the other cities are just hoping to boost their profile into the 20s or 10s (according to Long Finance, Dubai is number 12 in the world and 1 in the region, Abu Dhabi is number 39 in the world and two in the region, Doha is number 48 in the world, and Kuwait City is number 91).
SO This weekend, Sunday Dec 4 is the "Italian Referendum", a much hyped vote being put to the Italian populace concerning a large amount of varied and confusing proposed changes to the laws and constitution of Italy. In the "news", this referendum has been pounded with as much drama as is needed to get clicks. Here at /Forex, we recognize that these drama generating tactics will obscure what is likely the reality, so we wanted to give you a heads up on what to expect. The short version is that the current Prime Minister Matteo Renzi and his center-left Democratic Party are pushing a bill to amend the Italian Constitution to allow for more centralization of Government. The Italian Gov't is very decentralized, and has been so since WWII, a response to the conglomeration of power that Il Duce Mussolini sought for a strong, centralized, Fascist government. Beyond this, it gets confusing, muddy. Basically, there is a push to make the power shift from the provinces to the center in Rome. Mr Renzi has stated that these reforms are necessary for the well being of Italy, and that he will resign if they are not passed. If you want your eyes to glaze over read the wiki page. Where "Italexit" comes in is here: Theoretically (modified thanks to information from Cmossensor and enivid)
A "no" vote brings Renzi's alleged resignation. If he resigns, there is likely some sort of temporary government which may compromise on some issues. There is fear that this paves the way for a "right wing" (see discussion below), nationalist, Eurosceptic party called the "5 star Movement" (M5S) to come in to power. They have leaders who are vociferously anti-bank, also anti-EU and (important for us) anti-EUR (many, including Beppe, have advocated for a return to the Lira).
A "yes" vote paves the way for M5S to run on a strongly Pro-Italy, Anti-EU platform in the next general election and move to a larger representation in power; this gives them the advantage of having an already reformed constitution that has centralized power.
Morgan Stanley staff members Daniele Antonucci and Phanikiran Naraparaju point to Article 75 of Italy's written constitution, which enshrines the fact that Italy cannot hold a referendum on anything related to international treaties: "A general referendum may be held to repeal, in whole or in part, a law or a measure having the force of law, when so requested by five hundred thousand voters or five Regional Councils. No referendum may be held on a law regulating taxes, the budget, amnesty or pardon, or a law ratifying an international treaty." Membership of both the European Union and the euro, are by definition international in nature, and as a result, for Italy to give its people a say on leaving either, the constitution would have to be changed. Obviously, that is no easy task and would require a strongly eurosceptic government with a serious will to leave the EU.
The bold is the key part. BI's analysis:
This is the chain of events Naraparaju and Antonucci think needs to happen for Italy to drop out of the EU (emphasis ours): "So, the bar for leaving is high and the chain of events much longer than, say, for the UK to leave the EU. In Italy, a Eurosceptic party would have to win an election with an absolute majority and then set in motion the exit process after having changed the constitution with a two-thirds majority in both chambers or 'just' an absolute majority followed by a referendum. As Eurozone membership is indissolubly linked to EU membership, leaving the EU would also automatically mean leaving the EMU."
The TL;DR: It's simple:
1) Italy is not leaving the EU this Sunday
2) Close out your trades this Friday, or get small positions/low leverage if you just have to be in.
3) Expect volatility on Monday
4) The mods here at /Forex give our usual speech in light of big events: don't fucking gamble with your accounts; this is not a casino. For those of you trying to duplicate the successluck you may have had with both the Brexit vote and the US election, remember that this vote comes on a Sunday... so you won't be able to modify your position for several hours after the fact, and you will be doing so in the Asian market, not the most liquid of markets.
More feed back is appreciated from those of you who study this. But those of you wondering "which currency to buy" just don't - margin req's are going up (again...sigh) in the US for this weekend due to amateurs and silly gambling streaks.
Initial margin is the percentage of the purchase price of securities (that can be purchased on margin) that the investor must pay for with his own cash or marginable securities; it is also called ... Margin is usually expressed as a percentage of the full amount of the position. For example, most forex brokers say they require 2%, 1%, .5% or .25% margin. Based on the margin required by your broker, you can calculate the maximum leverage you can wield with your trading account. If your broker requires a 2% margin, you have a leverage of 50:1. Variation margin refers the amount of funds needed to ensure margin levels for trading. It depends on a variety of factors, including expected price movements, type of asset, and market conditions. Hebel und Margin. Eine attraktive Eigenschaft von CFDs ist die Hebelwirkung.Beim CFD-Handel kaufen Sie nicht den Basiswert, sondern hinterlegen für jede Handelsposition eine Sicherheitsleistung beim Handelspartner von comdirect. Diese Sicherheitsleistung wird Margin genannt.. Beim CFD-Handel wird im Gegensatz zum Direktinvestment weniger Kapital in Ihren Handelspositionen gebunden. 4.8 (6) Contents1 Margin Trading Definition:2 Margin Call:3 The Advantages of Margin Trading:4 Risks of Margin Trading: Margin Trading Definition: Margin Trading is purchasing stocks without investing the full capital. The trades have a systematized strategy for purchasing stocks in future market without having the capital. For example, Assume that you want to purchase 1000 … Mit CMC Markets haben Sie beim Forex-Handel per CFD (Contracts for Difference) die Möglichkeit, mit Hebel () zu traden.Sie hinterlegen somit auf Ihrem Konto nur eine Sicherheitsleistung, einen Bruchteil des am Markt bewegten Wertes, obwohl Sie das gesamte Volumen handeln. Margin & Hebel beim FX-Trading Forex Margin erklärt. Margin ist der Begriff, der verwendet wird, um die anfängliche Einlage zu beschreiben, die Sie tätigen, um eine gehebelte Position zu eröffnen und aufrechtzuerhalten. Wenn Sie Devisen mit einer Margin handeln – zum Beispiel beim CFD-Trading – denken Sie daran, dass sich Ihre Margin-Anforderung abhängig von Broker Ihrer Handelsgröße ändert. Die Marge wird in ...
Lesson 10: All about margin and leverage in forex trading ...
Margin is the amount of funds that the broker requires from the trader as collateral, in order to open a specific position of volume based on the leverage that the client has selected. Watch the ... Forex trading for beginners, part 5 - How Margin trading works, examples of why and when margin call and stop out happens. What is Equity and Free Margin. I ... Broker I recommend: No EU Clients - https://bit.ly/Non-EU-Clients EU Clients - https://bit.ly/EU-Clients My Website: https://www.rafalzuchowicz.com/ Contact:... Watch later. Share. Copy link. Info. Shopping. Tap to unmute. If playback doesn't begin shortly, try restarting your device. You're signed out. Videos you watch may be added to the TV's watch ... Share your videos with friends, family, and the world Put simply, Free Margin in forex trading is the money you have available for trading in your account, but how do you calculate it? Watch the video for the fu... FREE eBook: "How to Day Trade" Download Now: http://webinar.warriortrading.com/signup In this video, presented by Lightspeed Trading I go over the two basi...